A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
